Prime Video’s Fourth Wing TV Show Has Already Learned the Biggest Lesson From Game of Thrones’ Failure

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The Fourth Wing show has been in development for the past couple of years, pretty much since the book became a sensation that sold millions of copies (and sparked a million more BookTok posts). No casting has yet been announced, but it already boasts some impressive talent, with Michael B. Jordan an executive producer and Meredith Averill (Locke & Key, Wednesday) as showrunner.

Although the series will be different in many ways from Thrones – this is romantasy, after all – it is still a big, high stakes fantasy show with a lot of dragons, based on an acclaimed book series, so some comparisons are inevitable. And in that regard it already has one advantage: the show will not overtake the books. In an interview with Variety around the release of Onyx Storm last year, Yarros confirmed there is “no chance,” that will happen, and that the next book, the fourth, will absolutely be done long before the show is preparing for Season 4.

Fourth Wing Not Overtaking The Books Is A Great Sign For The TV Show

Image courtesy of Entangled Publishing

When Game of Thrones premiered in 2011, it was adapting George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire novels, but didn’t have a complete blueprint. A Dance with Dragons, the fifth of the author’s planned seven novels, arrived in July of that year, just a few months after Thrones debuted. At that time, he remained confident he would stay ahead of the books but, as time went on, it became clear that wasn’t going to happen (15 years later, The Winds of Winter is still in the works).

This, unfortunately, caused cataclysmic problems for Game of Thrones. The earlier seasons thrived on the intricate storytelling and carefully layered character arcs from the source material. And while I think the problems started before it ran out of books, because there were several adaptation choices that hurt things (the show actually cut a lot from books 4 and 5), the difference once it was overtaking them was clear. Major storylines were condensed, the pacing picked up dramatically, and things because much more plot-driven, focused on the end goal, rather than character driven and enjoying the slow build.

All of that culminated in the backlash to Game of Thrones Season 8, something that, while I personally still enjoy it, was massively criticized. The series finale is now a punching bag; it’s the go-to example in pop-culture lexicon of a TV show going off the rails at the finish line and having an all-time bad ending (for which LOST, How I Met Your Mother, and Dexter are presumably thankful, having each had that reputation across the 2010s). Again, it may not entirely be attributable to overtaking the source material, and only having the broadstrokes from Martin to work with, but it was clearly the biggest factor.

Yarros’ fantasy series, which began with Fourth Wing in 2023 and continued with Iron Flame and then Onyx Storm, is currently planned as a five-book saga. That means she needs to write two more books: the same amount Martin had left for the majority of Thrones‘ run.

These books are shorter, and focused on fewer characters and plotlines, so that certainly helps. And while Yarros has had a bit of a break after a pace so fast with the first three it might’ve been powered by Violet’s lightning signet, there’s no reason to disbelieve her promise. She’s already teased getting back to the world of Basgiath this year, and it’s generally expected we’ll see the book 4 sometime in 2027. It’s unlikely we’ll even see Prime’s TV show then – depending on how things progress, 2028 might be the most likely bet – which means she’d have several years to complete the saga before it even came close to being an issue.

This, and Yarros’ close collaboration on the show, should mean fans can be confident in a strong adaptation. Too many fantasy series in recent years have suffered from not following the source material, but that doesn’t look like it’ll happen here (though things can change, of course, especially in Hollywood). But it does mean that the biggest twists, character moments, and emotional payoffs, especially later down the line, can be entirely rooted in Yarros’ work and her complete vision, rather than an outline.

This is also crucial because it preserves the relationship between the novels and the show. Part of the excitement (though sometimes also nervousness) surrounding any major book adaptation is seeing beloved moments translated onto the screen. While it will likely make its own changes to best suit the medium, if the series were to move ahead of the novels, it would remove that experience entirely.

None of this is to say that Fourth Wing doesn’t have its own challenges, and some are even bigger, if comparable, to Game of Thrones. That show “only” had three dragons to contend with; the Empyrean Series has over a dozen. Bringing Basgiath War College and its dragons to life will require major visual effects investment: it’s a lot of time and money to get it right. Amazon has already demonstrated its willingness to fund ambitious fantasy projects, but the scale of the story will still demand careful execution. Everything so far, at least, points to that being the case.

Fourth Wing does not yet have a release date on Prime Video. Game of Thrones is available to stream on HBO Max.

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