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According to Deadline, Tron: Ares is estimated to earn approximately $44 million domestically in its opening weekend. That figure is virtually identical to what 2010’s Tron: Legacy earned in its debut (a little over $44 million), which means Ares could tie its predecessor for the biggest box office opening in the franchise. The original Tron, which was released back in 1982, opened with $4.7 million domestically.
Could Tron: Ares Exceed Box Office Projections?
A lot of films this year have surpassed the initial estimates and performed better than expected in their opening weekends. The crop of lucrative horror movies are perhaps the most notable examples, but some traditional studio tentpoles have pulled this off as well. Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps rode positive reviews and audience word of mouth to post strong openings. This trend illustrates how tricky it can be to predict the box office in the post-pandemic landscape, when moviegoing habits have changed. Nobody saw The Conjuring: Last Rites shattering box office records.
Tron: Ares has a chance of joining that group of over-performers, especially if reviews for it are generally positive. For starters, it won’t be facing much in the way of direct competition as it opens. It’s a big-budget studio tentpole opening in the early days of fall, a time when most studios put out their awards contenders. By the time Tron: Ares arrives in theaters, the high-profile holdovers will be titles like One Battle After Another and The Smashing Machine, which aren’t targeting Tron‘s core demographic of sci-fi fans. Additionally, Tron: Ares will be playing in premium formats, which could give its box office prospects a boost.
