Superman Just Got Even Closer to Winning an Oscar Next Year (And Marvel’s Chances Are Almost Zero)

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Today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announced shortlists for 12 categories. Superman secured a place in Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. The only Marvel movie to make a shortlist was Captain America: Brave New World, which cracked the lineup of Best Original Score contenders.

Can Superman or Captain America: Brave New World Win Any Oscars?

It’s important to keep in mind that there’s no guarantee Superman or Brave New World receive any Oscar nominations. They’re just merely on the shortlists of possibilities for voters to consider during this early process. Unsurprisingly, both Superman and Brave New World are facing tough competition in their respective categories, including numerous films that are legitimate threats in the Best Picture race. Campaigning is a huge part of awards season, and films like One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet seem to have much more passion behind them than Superman or Brave New World. That’s not necessarily an indictment on the quality of those films as it is a statement about the tastes of award bodies.

If Superman breaks through in either of its categories, it will be hard-pressed to win. Avatar: Fire and Ash seems like a lock to take home Best Visual Effects, following the footsteps of its predecessors. Superman undoubtedly has impressive visual effects director James Gunn and crew should be very proud of, but it would be quite an upset if James Cameron’s latest didn’t win. As for sound, Superman‘s lack of traction in the Best Picture field could hurt it; the last time a film that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture won an Oscar in a sound category was back in 2008, when The Dark Knight earned Best Sound Editing. Unless Superman has a surprise surge in Best Picture voting, the film will probably go home empty handed.

There isn’t as much correlation between winning Best Original Score and being nominated for Best Picture, but recent instances like Soul and The Hateful Eight are exceptions that prove the rule. More often than not, the Best Score winner is also part of the Best Picture lineup, and Brave New World will not be among the 10 Best Picture nominees this year. There is an outside chance it could still receive a nomination, though that will depend on how Disney opts to allocate its resources for awards campaigns. Brave New World infamously earned a mixed reception, which puts it behind the eight ball in terms of accolades. Disney could feel it has better luck pushing for some of its better-reviewed films.

It’s surprising the other Marvel movies this year couldn’t find their way on to one of these shortlists. Michael Giacchino is a beloved composer with one Oscar win and another nomination under his belt, so he could have received some love for his work on The Fantastic Four: First Steps, for instance. Perhaps First Steps or Thunderbolts* could crack a different category. The former could be in the running for Best Production Design thanks to its creation of a 1960s-inspired retro-futuristic aesthetic that gave it a distinct feel. It’s disappointing none of these movies have a realistic shot at above-the-line nominations (despite the best efforts from the studios), but they could still earn some accolades.

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