Videos by ComicBook.com
According to Variety, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is estimated to earn between $175-180 million domestically over its first five days (it opens in theaters on Wednesday, April 1st). Tracking indicates the film will earn “at least” another $175 million internationally, which would raise its global debut to $350-375 million. These figures are below what The Super Mario Bros. Movie earned a few years ago ($204 million domestic; $377 million worldwide), but even the low end of these estimates would be enough to score 2026’s highest box office opening to date (beating Project Hail Mary‘s $140 million).
Can The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Exceed Box Office Projections?
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has very high box office projections, but it’ll still be interesting to see if it can outperform those estimates. This has been a trend over the past couple of years, as there have been several movies that fared better than initially expected. That group includes the recent animated film Hoppers, which was projected to gross between $36-38 million domestically and ended up making $46 million in North America (the best debut for an original animated movie in nearly 10 years). Project Hail Mary also surpassed box office expectations with its $80 million domestic opening.
One thing Hoppers and Project Hail Mary had in common was positive word of mouth. The enthusiastic reception to both undoubtedly had a positive impact on the box office. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is in a completely different boat, however. Hoppers and Project Hail Mary are non-franchise films, so they needed strong word of mouth in order to appeal to general moviegoers. Super Mario Galaxy Movie is a sequel to a hit movie that’s rooted in beloved IP, so it will likely be critic-proof (especially in the early going). The first Super Mario Bros. Movie earned mixed reviews and still broke box office records.
