Avengers vs. Dune 3 Box Office Showdown Could Be Bad News for Dwayne Johnson’s New Movie

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We’re not just talking about possible awards contenders expanding to addition locations. There’s currently another major studio franchise tentpole slated to open in December: a third Jumanji movie starring Dwayne Johnson. In a piece in Variety analyzing the impending Dunesday showdown, it’s mentioned that “exhibitors are actually more worried [Jumanji 3] will get crushed” following its first weekend because theaters will be booking as many Doomsday and Dune: Part Three showings as possible, taking up a lot of screens.

What Should Sony Do About Jumanji 3?

Image Courtesy of Sony

Johnson does have the live-action Moana remake on the way this summer, but it would be an unfortunate development if the next Jumanji underwhelms. Johnson is coming off of a major box office bomb in the form of sports biopic The Smashing Machine, which earned just $21.1 million worldwide. Jumanji 3 was likely envisioned as (ideally) a successful return to franchise fare, re-establishing Johnson as a box office draw before he goes off and makes another awards hopeful (like Martin Scorsese’s Hawaiian gangster movie). Nobody involved with Jumanji 3 wants to see it get “crushed” by a pair of behemoths after just one weekend.

The first two modern Jumanji movies were able to coexist with installments of the Star Wars sequel trilogy, posting $962.5 million and $801.6 million globally. This is a completely different scenario; it’s easy to understand why exhibitors are concerned about Jumanji 3‘s long-term health. Instead of sharing theaters with one massive genre film, Jumanji will be dealing with the arrival of two of the year’s biggest titles. Theaters will be working overtime planning schedules in an effort to accommodate not just Doomsday and Dune, but also all of the holdovers that will still be playing. Even if it gets off to a great start, Jumanji will likely draw the short straw and lose a plethora of screens to its rivals.

At this point, the odds of either Doomsday or Dune: Part Three moving are low. Warner Bros. has secured an exclusive IMAX run for the latter, and the studio isn’t going to want to give that up (especially since Dune was made with premium formats in mind). Marvel Studios has already revved up the hype machine for Doomsday, releasing four teaser trailers and unveiling a countdown clock ticking off the literal seconds until the film’s premiere. Barring something unforeseen, both blockbusters are going to stick to their December release date, putting Jumanji at a disadvantage.

It might be smart for Sony to blink and move Jumanji out of December. If Jumanji 3 is going to have any chance of replicating the performance of its predecessors, it’s going to need strong legs, which won’t happen as things currently stand. The studio wants Jumanji 3, which is positioned as the final installment of the modern series and a tribute to the franchise’s enduring legacy, to be a major cinematic event in its own right. Avoiding a clash with Avengers and Dune would go a long way in ensuring that happens, even if it means giving up a holiday season release date. If that’s what the studio wants to do, they should move Jumanji now before potential windows fill up, otherwise, they could stand to take a loss on the action/adventure film.

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