Pokemon TCG’s Rarest Mega Evolution Cards Have Lowest Pull Rates Ever (But It’s Not All Bad News)

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For many Pokemon fans, online marketplace TCG Player is the go-to for buying cards secondhand. But the site has also become a solid source of information about popular TCGs. Most recently, TCG Player opened over 5,000 packs of Pokemon TCG: Mega Evolution to calculate the pull rates. And if you’ve got your eyes on those Mega Hyper Rare gold cards, it’s not great news. And the resale prices are already showing it.

Mega Evolution Gold Mega Hyper Rares Skyrocket in Price Due to Staggeringly Low Pull Rates

Image courtesy of The Pokemon Company

Overall, the pull rates for most cards in Mega Evolution are actually pretty decent. Special Illustration Rares are at around 1/101, while Illustration Rares are 1/9. However, the story for those brand-new Mega Hyper Rare Gold Cards is pretty bleak. The chances of pulling any of these new Gold Cards at all is around 1/1260, whereas pulling the specific one you’re looking for is around 1/2520. That means these cards are nearly impossible to pull from your random pack purchases.

These new cards are intended to replace the Hyper Rare cards from former packs. And The Pokemon Company wasn’t joking when they added that “mega” in front of the card rarity. It’s not just a nod to Mega Evolutions, but also an indication that these cards are mega, mega rare. Naturally, that means that card resellers who have managed to get ahold of them are charging accordingly.

There are just two Mega Hyper Rare cards in the new Mega Evolution set: Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex. At the time of this writing, you can find a mint condition Gold Mega Gardevoir ex priced at $1,200 on TCG Player. Meanwhile, Gold Mega Lucario ex is sitting at around $600 for a “lightly played” condition card. This has already gone up in the time since TCG Player posted their pull rate estimations.

Image courtesy of The Pokemon Company

Of course, resale prices are pretty volatile in the initial weeks after a new set comes out. The cards that have actually sold have gone for somewhere closer to $400-500, so the over $1000 starting price might be wishful thinking. At any rate, it’s not entirely clear where the final value of these cards will settle just yet. What is clear, however, is that the pull rates for them mean there are likely very few of these new Mega Hyper Rare cards out in the wild for players to find.

These two cards might be the rarest we’ve seen in recent Pokemon TCG history, but the pull rates for the overall set are actually good news. While those hoping to see a flash of gold in their packs will need to get their hands on a lot of Mega Evolutions boosters, most other chase cards in the sets are slightly easier to find than those in the Scarlet & Violet era. So if you’re as invested in those gorgeous Bulbasaur, Ivysaur and Mega Venusaur Special Illustration cards as I am, your chances to pull them at random aren’t too shabby.

Will you be trying to chase these new Mega Hyper Rares? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!